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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 Jackson Jackson
#player2 Joel_Horn Joel Horn
>Jackson: DEEEFNY H4 FEYED +32 32
>Jackson: DEEEFNY -- -32 0
#note Moment of truth. This is something I used to do more circa 2018, trying to get the edge even at the cost of some extra risk. The idea here is to have this accepted, or have it be challenged off and be given an A for FEDAYEEN. The break even point is around 4/7 of the time that this needs to be accepted for it to be the right decision - if it gets accepted more than 6/11 of the time it's good, if it's accepted less it's bad (this is based off a sim). In reality, I liked this decision a bit more because of the upside of FEDAYEEN getting challenged, or it being S hooked, which I would challenge off, or get to play myself. The problem is that I couldn't find a great phony I lked over the board, which is a really big creative error - FEYED* is a really bad phony, given FEY does not take an S, and this is a relatively known phony accompaniment to FAYED. I think this could be a good call if I make it FENDEY* or something more ridiculous, like FYNDEE*.
>Joel_Horn: GJO 8G JOG +22 22
#note the problem is that even if I have the belief that a phony on the first rack has the best average outcome, it still induces a ton of risk - this situation, where it gets challenged off and I am not given an A, happens quite often, and puts me in a pretty big bind.
>Jackson: DEEEFNY G8 .EFE +15 15
#note considered GEY and exchanging, which are really not bad given how much every other option give sback - JEFE seemed good enough to warrant playing - sim agrees.
>Joel_Horn: ACEILRS 12G SCALIER +89 111
#note couldn't even be mad, cause I was fully aware of this downside as I made the very sober but very bad call of playing FEYED*.
>Jackson: DEENOTY H10 EN.ODE +34 49
#note considered CONY or F9 YOD as the more thematic options, down this much. Sim thinks both are worth it over ENCODE, which I really can't argue with. Waffled between all three for a while.
>Joel_Horn: AIQ 14F QA.I +34 145
>Jackson: ADELTYY M9 YEA.LY +32 81
>Joel_Horn: LMP K11 L.MP +16 161
>Jackson: ADLNRTT 11E TR..D +15 96
#note missed DENTAL/LIMPA here, despite seeing D(EN)TAL before he played LIMP, and being aware of LIMPA. BAd vision error here.
>Joel_Horn: ARV L8 VAR +17 178
>Jackson: AEILNNT I1 LATENIN. +61 157
>Joel_Horn: ?DHIMRS 4E MISH.aRD +84 262
>Jackson: EKNOSTW 6E WONK.EST +69 226
>Joel_Horn: CFHI 1G FI.CH +39 301
>Jackson: ?ABEENN 2A hENBANE +75 301
>Joel_Horn: ABEEGOT 5C GOA +24 325
>Jackson: IIOPRTU 3B TUI +16 317
#note didnt see K1 HOURIS or 1A UPO. TUI with QI or up top, PI N10, and a few other bad plays all considered. HOURIS might be the call here, just to try and get some better scoring pressure on. I liked TUI for potentially leaving a sneaky A column lane, but it's true that with the vowel heavy pool IOPR is not super potent - IPRT is more stable and can start to win more games by catching Joel with drek. I think HOURIS is probably the call. TUI/QI also has the E hook it sets up, but I liked keeping the 15 row open as another sneaky lane. Realistically I am also gunning for the X or Z here for the N10 spot, and GOA often keeps neither.
>Joel_Horn: IX N10 XI +53 378
>Jackson: EIOPRRZ 12A PRIZE +40 357
#note strongly considered PRYER 14K, which sets up ZORI, but it was really hard to see a world where that doesnt get blocked, and there isn't some other huge threat I can have or can hit after that. 10B ZORI was a consideration, maybe slowly crawling my way back in with a decent rack. I dont mind that. I played PRIZE hoping he couldn't block the C column effectively, and threatening to outscore if I draw the good tiles from the bag. If anyone has any ideas that would be appreciated, I spent a ton of time on this position and felt like I could wring more from the position than just PRIZE + pray.
>Joel_Horn: EGTU A8 GETU. +24 402
>Jackson: AOOORUV 14K .O.OU +20 377
#note very hard to imagine winning here, besides praying for a random phony or something.
>Joel_Horn: ADIOSTU 13C DA +23 425
>Jackson: ABORVW C9 BOV.. +14 391
>Joel_Horn: IOSTU 15N IT +14 439
>Jackson: ARW 15J RAW +28 419
>Jackson: (OSU) +6 425
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